Met Office weather points to rain returning this weekend after parts of Wales entered drought. The change follows a long dry spell that has left some places short of meaningful rainfall, and it should begin to ease conditions in the wettest areas first.
Most of Wales has had less than 25mm of rain since the middle of June, while Rhyl in Denbighshire has recorded only 3mm. In England, most areas have had less than 10mm since 15 June, and large areas of central southern England have seen 3mm or less.
Llangollen in north-east Wales
Llangollen has become a visible sign of the dry spell, with fields in north-east Wales turning brown. That is the sort of change local readers can already see on the ground before any wider weather shift shows up in rainfall totals.
This weekend, high pressure over the UK is expected to move westward, a change known as retrogression, and the jet stream is expected to move over the UK and steer weather fronts in. The hills of Northern Ireland, northern England and north Wales are expected to get 5-10mm, while western Scotland will be wetter with 10-20mm over high ground.
England and Wales rainfall
The Midlands, southern England and east England are likely to see lighter, patchier rain, with just a few millimetres expected, and some areas could miss out altogether. Wisley in Surrey has had no rain at all for 36 consecutive days, showing how uneven the dry spell has been across England and Wales.
June was wetter than average in the UK overall, but most of that rain fell in the first two weeks of the month for England and Wales. Northern Ireland recorded 67% more rain than average in June, which helps explain why the dry spell has sharpened in one part of the UK while another stayed much wetter.
Thames Water hosepipe ban
A Thames Water hosepipe ban came into force on Thursday, and the weekend rain will not be enough to stop a slide towards more widespread drought conditions. People in the driest parts of Wales and England may see some short-term relief, but the forecast does not point to a clean break from restrictions or drought pressure.
Whether the rain expected this weekend will be enough to change drought classifications or hosepipe restrictions is not answered, so the immediate reader takeaway is simple: wetter weather is returning, but not evenly enough to reset the picture across Wales and England.
