Ross Douthat’s newest New Hampshire numbers show JD Vance still ahead, but the gap is far smaller than it was in February. A University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll this week put Vance at 36% and Marco Rubio at 26% among likely GOP primary voters.
That is a 10-point lead for Vance, compared with a 46-point margin in February, when the same matchup stood at 53% to 7%. Rubio gained 19 points, while Vance fell 17, and the race among likely Republican voters in New Hampshire now looks far tighter than it did in the winter.
University of New Hampshire numbers
The poll still leaves Vance in front, but it also shows a clearer two-man contest than before. Rand Paul was at 8%, Nikki Haley at 8%, and Ron DeSantis at 6%, while everyone else tested registered 4% or less.
David Carney, a New Hampshire-based Republican consultant, said, “There's nobody else in the conversation besides those two, so this poll makes sense,” referring to Vance and Rubio. That is the cleanest read of the survey: the field is still open, but the vote is concentrating fast at the top.
February to this week
The shift is sharp enough to change how the early 2028 Republican picture is being read. Vance remains the clear hypothetical frontrunner, yet Rubio has narrowed the gap from 53% to 7% in February to 36% to 26% this week.
Rubio’s rise also fits the larger pattern around his public profile this year. He was already a close second to Vance in the 2028 Republican presidential nomination straw poll at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference earlier this year, and the new New Hampshire survey shows that support carrying into a more consequential early state.
New Hampshire primary stakes
New Hampshire matters because it has held the first Republican presidential primary for a century. In a state that often rewards early momentum, a 10-point spread is a very different read from a 46-point blowout, even this far from the real race.
The practical takeaway for GOP voters and donors is simple: Vance still leads, but Rubio is no longer far behind, and the next phase of this contest is expected to arrive after this autumn's midterm elections. For now, the New Hampshire board is showing a race with two names at the front and little room for anyone else to break through.
