The Connecticut Sun are not just losing games right now — they are looking like a team that has run out of answers. Five straight defeats, four of them by at least eight points, is not a blip. It is a warning sign. And with the Phoenix Mercury heading in on Friday night, the market has every reason to lean toward the visitors covering the spread.
This is where the numbers get ugly for the Sun. They are putting up only 79.8 points per game, sitting on a minus 7.5 point differential, and owning a 47.3% effective field goal percentage. That is bottom-six territory across the board, and it matches the eye test: this is the league’s worst offensive team by multiple metrics. When a side is that limited, it does not need much pressure to crack.
The scary part for Connecticut is that the Mercury are arriving with a very different kind of momentum. Since Kelsey Plum joined the roster, Phoenix has averaged 94.0 points per game across her first two appearances. That is the kind of immediate offensive lift teams dream about at the trade deadline and almost never get. Plum has scored 19.5 points per game in those two games, and the Mercury suddenly look far less easy to contain.
Phoenix has found the tempo Connecticut cannot match
The change is not just about Plum’s scoring. Phoenix has been sharper from the floor, hitting 45.7% overall with a 105.2 offensive rating in those two games. It has also been dangerous enough from deep to make defenses think twice, with 35.8% shooting from three and a stretch that included four made threes in one game. That kind of balance matters against a Sun team that is already struggling to keep opponents from pulling away.
For Connecticut, the worry is simple: if the offense cannot keep pace, the game can get away from them quickly. The Sun are 0-5 ATS during this losing run, which only adds to the sense that they are not just failing to win — they are failing to stay competitive in the betting market too. That matters because teams in this sort of slump tend to expose the same flaw again and again: no reliable scoring base, no easy way back, and no margin for error.
There is always a chance that a desperate home team plays with more bite, and the Sun have enough pride to make this uncomfortable for stretches. But the broader picture is hard to ignore. Four straight double-digit-ish failures in a five-game skid, a 79.8-point offense, and a Mercury side that has just been jolted by Kelsey Plum’s arrival is not the profile of a side you want to trust.
So the call is straightforward: Phoenix looks well placed to cover. Connecticut’s slide is real, and right now the Sun are giving off the unmistakable feel of a team that is simply too short of answers to stop a better offense from doing damage.
