Forecasters are watching two tropical waves in the Atlantic, including one moving off the west coast of Africa that has a 40% chance of development over the next seven days. For Residents in the local area, the same setup points to pop up afternoon storms Monday and Tuesday, with hot, muggy weather carrying through next weekend.
The wave near the Cabo Verde Islands has only a slim chance of development and is expected to weaken as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. The stronger disturbance is the one crossing the eastern Atlantic, where forecasters say a tropical depression could form during the second half of next week if it organizes enough to hold together.
Atlantic waves split in strength
The difference between the two waves is the key detail. One is weakening on its way west, while the other has a 40% chance of development, so the Atlantic pattern is active but not equally threatening. That gap matters for timing: the stronger system still has several days to organize as it moves across the eastern and central Atlantic.
For readers in the local area, the practical effect is a stretch of summer weather rather than an immediate storm threat. Afternoon highs are expected near 90 degrees, with slightly hotter temperatures and scattered storms as the pattern settles in.
Monday and Tuesday rain chance
The best chance for rain will be on Monday and Tuesday. After that, mainly hot and dry weather prevails through next weekend, even as the tropical waves continue to be monitored farther out over the Atlantic.
The setup is being shaped by an upper-level high over the desert southwest and the Bermuda high to the east. That pattern favors pop up afternoon storms locally while the tropical disturbance remains over open water and works through the next several days.
Second half of next week
The next point to watch is whether the stronger wave can hold its organization long enough to become a tropical depression during the second half of next week. For now, the forecast leaves two separate tracks: one wave weakening near the Lesser Antilles and another with enough potential to keep forecasters watching the eastern and central Atlantic.
