Rob Sand leads Zach Lahn 48% to 43% in a new Emerson College Polling and Nexstar Media survey of Iowa likely voters. The poll also shows Ashley Hinson ahead of Josh Turek 48% to 45%, giving both statewide races a tight early snapshot.
Sand’s standing is strongest among independents, who backed him 58% to 32%, a 26-point margin. Spencer Kimball said Sand “performs better among these swing voters,” and added that about 1 in 10 Trump voters say they would support him.
Rob Sand and Zach Lahn
The survey was conducted August 2-4, 2026, among 712 likely voters and has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.7 percent. Seven percent were undecided in the governor’s race, a share large enough to leave room for movement even with Sand ahead.
Sand also had the highest favorable rating among statewide candidates at 51%, compared with 36% for Lahn. Sand’s 31% unfavorable rating was lower than Lahn’s 40%, and Kimball tied Sand’s edge to the independent vote. “Driving Democratic competition in the Iowa general election are independent voters, who break for Sand by a 26-point margin, 58% to 32%, and Turek by an 11-point margin, 49% to 38%,” he said.
Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek
In the Senate race, Hinson led Turek 48% to 45%, with 6% undecided. Turek did better with independents than Lahn did, taking them 49% to 38%, but Hinson kept the overall lead. Hinson’s favorable rating was 44%, while Turek’s was 42%.
The poll also found Trump with a 43% job approval rating and a 51% disapproval rating among Iowa voters. Kim Reynolds had a 44% job approval rating and a 47% disapproval rating. Kimball said Sand runs better with swing voters who broke for Trump in 2024 by about 17 points in Emerson’s final poll.
Iowa voter priorities
Among the issues measured, the economy ranked first at 38%, followed by healthcare at 19%, threats to democracy at 11% and education at 10%. Immigration and housing affordability each drew 6%. Those issue rankings sit alongside the caucus question, where 53% said Iowa should keep its presidential caucus system, 25% preferred a primary and 23% were not sure.
The numbers give Sand a lead built on independents and some Trump voters, while Hinson’s margin is narrower and more dependent on holding her current coalition. The August 2-4 survey shows both races close enough that the undecided share still has room to matter as Election Day gets closer.
