Nebius Group’s NBIS earnings arrive before the market open on Wednesday, Aug. 12, with shares up 173% over the past year even after a 35% pullback from the peak. That split screen is the real setup: the stock has already priced in a lot of progress, but the next report still has to justify the pace of the company’s buildout.
Nebius Group’s 173% run
173% is the size of the move investors are already sitting on, and it came as Nebius moved from a first-quarter revenue base of $399 million to a much larger 2026 target. The company also reported $621 million in net operating income in the first quarter after a $104 million loss, a swing that shows how quickly the operating picture changed.
35% is how far the stock still sits below its peak, which leaves room for a sharp reaction in either direction if the second-quarter numbers or the outlook fail to line up with the market’s expectations. For holders, that gap means the stock has not fully repaired the damage from its earlier slide, even after a year of gains.
4 gigawatts and the buildout
4 gigawatts is Nebius’s updated 2026 AI-compute capacity guidance, up from 3 gigawatts in February. That change matters because it turns the company’s growth story from a single-quarter revenue spike into a longer capacity plan tied to how fast it can deploy infrastructure and sell GPUaaS capacity.
$27 billion is the size of the five-year deal Nebius announced with Meta Platforms, and it was based on Nebius’s first large-scale deployment of Nvidia’s Vera Rubin chips. Nvidia also invested $2 billion in Nebius to help accelerate deployment of its next-generation neocloud operations, and Nvidia said Nebius had a unique depth of engineering expertise across the full AI technology stack.
$3 billion to $3.4 billion
$3 billion to $3.4 billion is the company’s full-year revenue guide, alongside an adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization) margin of roughly 40%. In 2025, Nebius delivered $530 million of revenue and a $65 million adjusted EBITDA loss, so the current plan implies a far steeper scale-up than last year’s results.
466% to 542% is the implied year-over-year growth range for 2026 revenue guidance, using the company’s own targets. Nebius also reached an agreement with Bloom Energy for 328 megawatts of electricity to power its data centers, which gives the capacity plan a concrete power requirement instead of just a financial target.
On Wednesday, Aug. 12, the market gets the next hard check on whether the first-quarter surge, the capacity targets, and the capital support from Meta Platforms and Nvidia are moving in the same direction. If they are, the stock can stay anchored to execution; if they are not, the 173% gain will look much less durable.
