XRP news turned on leverage Wednesday as futures open interest climbed to 2.67 billion XRP, the highest since October, while the token hovered near $1 before the U.S. CPI release. Traders were already dealing with a brief slide to 99 cents on Tuesday and a quick rebound that stalled near $1.02.
Markus Thielen and 10x Research
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said the market is pricing a post-CPI swing of just 1.3%. That leaves XRP positioned for a sharp move if the CPI print lands outside that narrow range, even after the contract buildup pushed open interest to $2.73 billion from 2.25 billion XRP at the start of the month.
The price action adds another layer. XRP has lagged behind bitcoin and the broader market recovery in recent days, yet the futures position count has kept rising. The gap between subdued price trading and heavier leverage means even a small data surprise can force traders to adjust quickly.
Tuesday’s 99-cent test
On Tuesday, XRP briefly fell to 99 cents on some exchanges before recovering. A drop under $1 would be the first since November 2024, and the July 2023 high of 92 cents could act as support if that level breaks. If 92 cents gives way, the next potential support is around 50 cents.
The setup leaves holders watching two things at once: whether XRP can hold above $1 and whether the CPI release produces the kind of move the futures market is barely pricing in. A softer-than-expected CPI print could weaken the dollar, while a larger swing could expose the leverage now sitting in XRP contracts.
Laevitas on IV
Laevitas said: "7d ATM IV [implied volatility] has compressed to 29.1v on BTC and 41.2v on ETH even as a binary July print lands inside the weekly window, so the term structure is declining to price the event risk that sits directly on the tape". The quote fits the same pattern in XRP: traders are carrying more futures exposure while short-dated volatility pricing in BTC and ETH points to restrained expectations into the CPI release.
For XRP traders, the immediate takeaway is simple: the market is already leaning into the data, but not bracing for a large move. That makes the CPI release later on Wednesday the price test that can decide whether the push above 2.67 billion XRP in open interest becomes a squeeze or a stalled buildup.
