COHR stock fell 11.63% on Monday to $335.05, reversing part of a 44.22% weekly run before Coherent’s August 12 report. Traders were still digesting a share price that had climbed 105.41% year to date. The move came without a new company release, analyst action, or macro headline attached to it.
@jukan05 and the optical bid
1.22 was the full-chain put/call ratio, while the August 14 expiration put/call ratio stood at 1.33. That points to traders paying up for downside protection into the event rather than chasing upside alone, with 7,972 puts versus 6,227 calls in the post-earnings window.
@jukan05, the Citrini analyst who posted on X over the weekend, said, “I think the market ultimately has no choice but to go sell memory, long optical in the “short term.”” He also wrote, “I currently have no memory position.” Those posts framed the weekend debate around whether optics would replace memory as the hotter AI trade, and peer stocks LITE and AAOI each gained over 6% in their last session.
Q4 FY2025 still looms
19.61% was the size of Coherent’s day-of drop when it last missed in Q4 FY2025, a reminder that earnings can still produce a fast reset even after a strong run. Last quarter, Coherent reported non-GAAP EPS of $1.41 on revenue of $1.805 billion, with revenue up 20.5% year over year and the Datacenter & Communications segment climbing 40.6% to $1.361 billion.
75% of revenue came from that segment last quarter, so the stock is still tied heavily to the pace of datacenter spending. Management guided Q4 revenue to $1.91 billion to $2.05 billion, and Goldman Sachs projects AI demand will exceed compute center capacity for years to come. That leaves August 12 as the next hard test for whether the market keeps treating Coherent as a beneficiary of AI infrastructure or trims exposure after the recent surge.
233.1% is how far Coherent has risen over the past year, which is why Monday’s drop looks less like a broken trend than a sharp de-risking into earnings. If the report on August 12 beats the market’s setup, the recent pullback may read as positioning noise; if it misses, the stock has already shown it can give back a large chunk in a single session.
