Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas said the SPCX stock price could reach $600 in a bull-case scenario, a level that would imply an $8 trillion valuation for Space Exploration Technologies Corp. He reaffirmed an overweight rating on Tuesday, keeping the stock story centered on a far wider upside range than most of Wall Street.
Jonas began that coverage on July 7 with a $300 target. His latest view doubles that base target and puts the spotlight on what has to happen for the higher number to make sense: Starship would need to fly often enough and efficiently enough to cut the cost of deploying AI computing capacity to half the current rate.
Adam Jonas Doubles the Upside
The $600 bull case does not stand alone. Jonas also laid out a $75 bear case, which shows how far the valuation spread runs inside one analyst model.
That gap is wider than the rest of the analyst field. Among 32 analysts covering the stock, the average price target sits around $227, and the high target is $800. Investors in SpaceX stock are being asked to price a business that can sit near the middle of that range today and still support radically different end states.
Wall Street’s Wider Split
Morningstar is even more cautious. It sees the core launch and Starlink businesses worth about $40 per share, while its Moonshot scenario reaches $154 per share and carries a 7% probability in its analysis.
That contrast leaves the market with two different ways to think about the stock. One view treats the existing launch and Starlink operations as the main value driver. The other leans on AI and Starship to justify a much larger number.
Starship, AI, and the Next Test
Jonas added another marker on July 24, writing that a $100 share price would imply the market was assigning no value at all to SpaceX’s AI business. He also linked the bull case to a future in which hundreds of millions or billions of AI-powered robots are subscribed to by 2040 at an average revenue per user of $35.
Whether SpaceX can actually deploy AI data centers in orbit at scale and cheaply enough to justify the $600 bull case is the central issue now. For investors, the headline number matters less than the assumptions underneath it: Starship flight cadence, deployment costs, and how much of the AI story the market is willing to pay for before those pieces are proven.
