Donald Trump’s favorability among pure independents was underwater by 57 percentage points in a Marquette Law School poll, as Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead Montana enters a 2026 midterm race shaped by voters who are still sorting themselves out. The elections are about 80 days away, and independents may help decide control of Congress in November.
That same Marquette poll, taken from July 22 to 29, 2026, found just 24 percent of pure independents viewed Democrats favorably and just 15 percent viewed Republicans favorably. Those numbers track with a wider shift: the share of Americans who identify as independent has risen by 10 percent since 2008, and a record 45 percent identified that way in 2025.
Marquette Law School and Trump
Trump’s number gives the clearest snapshot of the problem for both parties. Among pure independents, his favorability trailed unfavorability by 57 percentage points, a gap that sits alongside the 24 percent favorable view of Democrats and the 15 percent favorable view of Republicans.
The poll does not show independents lining up behind either party. It shows a bloc that is large enough to matter and sharply less favorable toward both sides than partisans are.
/SSRS and turnout
A /SSRS poll from May 7 to 31, 2026, adds the turnout question. Fourteen percent of independents said they did not follow politics at all, compared with 4 percent of Democrats and Republicans. Only 25 percent of independents said they frequently seek out the latest political news, while 42 percent of Democrats and 39 percent of Republicans said the same.
The registration numbers point in the same direction. Sixty-seven percent of independents said they were registered to vote, versus more than 80 percent of partisans. The same poll found 63 percent of independents were under the age of 50.
YouGov/The Economist tracking
YouGov/The Economist tracking shows the dissatisfaction has spread beyond party labels. Among registered independent voters, 68 percent said the economy is getting worse, the highest level since July 2022 and 11 points higher than among registered voters overall. Seventy-four percent said the country is on the wrong track, compared with 64 percent of registered voters overall.
The trajectory changed after Biden’s inauguration in 2021. Before that, and during Trump’s first term, independents generally looked similar to the nation in their views of the country. After Biden’s inauguration, they turned more pessimistic than the overall electorate, then briefly improved after Trump’s second inauguration.
For campaigns, the practical issue is not whether independents exist; it is whether they show up. They are less registered, less politically engaged, and more likely to say they do not follow politics at all, even as they make up a record share of Americans and could decide Congress in November.
What happens next is simple to watch: whether that dissatisfaction turns into turnout, or stays as discontent in the polling.
