The Chicago Cubs are not being backed here because of vague momentum or some lazy blanket belief that they are simply the better team. They are favored for a much more specific reason: Matthew Boyd keeps showing numbers that make this matchup tilt their way, and the Cardinals do not exactly arrive with a case that screams confidence.
That is the whole point of this Cardinals vs. Cubs handicap. Boyd owns a 2.37 ERA and 0.67 HR/9 this season when you exclude Top-10 offenses in OPS vs. lefties, and that matters because this is the kind of split bettors actually use when they are trying to separate noise from something real. It also helps that the Cubs have been excellent against weaker competition this season, going 41-28 against sub.500 teams.
Why Boyd’s numbers matter
Boyd is not being sold as untouchable, and that would be overdoing it. But there is a clear pattern here. Against lineups that are not among the best in the league versus left-handed pitching, he has looked extremely difficult to square up. A 2.37 ERA is strong enough on its own. Add the 0.67 HR/9 and you are talking about a pitcher who has largely taken away the easiest path for an offense to break a game open.
There is also the home-run angle, which should not be brushed aside. Boyd has allowed 1.67 HR/9 at home this season, so this is not a perfect profile. Still, even that number has to be viewed inside the broader matchup context. If the Cardinals are going to beat the Cubs, they probably need to do more than wait around for a mistake ball and hope the game falls apart for Chicago.
The Cardinals do not arrive with much momentum
Michael McGreevy is the other reason the betting line leans the Cubs’ way, and there is no sugarcoating the recent form. Over his last five starts, he has a 6.29 ERA, and the last time he started against the Chicago Cubs, he allowed seven runs. That is not the sort of recent history that inspires faith when the opponent is priced as a favorite.
The Cubs have their own case beyond the starting pitching. Over the past month, Chicago ranked sixth in wOBA vs. righties, which adds another layer to the argument. That is not an empty stat designed to sound impressive. It says the Cubs have been productive against right-handed pitching, and McGreevy is walking into exactly that kind of problem.
So when Todd Cordell says, “With Michael McGreevy coming back to earth, I'm all over the home team in my Cardinals vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks,” the logic is pretty easy to follow. The Cubs are stronger in the split that matters, better at home, and backed by a pitcher whose matchup numbers support the price.
That does not mean the Cardinals have no chance. It means they are the side that has to prove more. In a game like this, that is usually the side you do not want to be backing.
