Sven Sundgaard said on Friday that a Tuesday system is looking promising for Minnesota, with central and southern Minnesota in line for the best chance at meaningful rain. Ken Barlow readers hoping for relief from worsening dryness may finally see a soaking if the setup holds.
He said the European model is producing significant rainfall in central and southern Minnesota, where moisture is needed. In the same forecast discussion, he warned that the system tonight had also looked promising earlier in the week and never delivered much, so the rain chance deserves attention but not confidence yet.
European model points south
Sundgaard said the rain could help areas that have missed out while far southern Minnesota and Iowa got drenched this past week. The Twin Cities, by contrast, saw little more than a few brief showers and sprinkles, leaving the main rain axis still pointed away from the metro on recent systems.
That split matters because the most persistent dryness has been building in central and southern Minnesota. A broader, steadier rain would do more for soil moisture there than the scattered showers that have been falling in and around the Twin Cities.
National Weather Service sees no severe storms
The National Weather Service says severe storms are not expected with next week’s system. That keeps the focus on rainfall totals rather than damaging weather, although the forecast still hinges on whether the system organizes the way the European model suggests.
Sundgaard tried to keep expectations in check on Friday: “The Tuesday system is looking promising at the moment. But I preface this by saying, so did the system tonight — earlier in the week, it looked promising. So don't get excited yet,” and added, “But the European model is producing some significant rainfall in central and southern Minnesota, where we need it. But again, until it happens or consistently looks like it might happen, let's not hold our breath just yet. We definitely need the moisture, though.”
Tuesday rainfall still in play
For people in central and southern Minnesota, the practical question is simple: whether Tuesday’s system can turn model guidance into a real soaking after a week of missed chances. If it does, the rain would land where it is most needed; if it follows the earlier near-miss, the region stays stuck waiting for the next round.
