OpenSnow’s new super El Niño map points to above-average snowfall across California and Nevada in the 2026–2027 Winter Forecast Preview. The Central Sierra carries the strongest statistical signal, and the heaviest storm cycles are expected to build after the new year.
Alan Smith on OpenSnow
Alan Smith said the developing super El Niño played a significant role in shaping the forecast. OpenSnow’s read draws on historical strong El Niño winters, oceanic and atmospheric conditions, and seasonal climate models, which is why the map does not treat every mountain zone the same.
“We are projecting above-normal precipitation across a large portion of the US, including the West Coast, Southwest, Southern Plains, Southeast and East Coast as strong El Niños favor an active southern storm track,” he said.
Central Sierra Signals
The Central Sierra stands out in the forecast, with Mammoth Mountain and China Peak sitting in the area with the strongest signals. Northern California and the Tahoe region are projected to lean warmer than average, but forecasters do not expect the extreme warmth that matched last season's historic highs.
Smith added: “SoCal ski resorts such as Mountain High and Snow Summit also tend to see disproportionately higher snowfall in El Niño winters (especially strong ones) compared with neutral or La Niña winters.”
2015–2016 Still Lingers
The forecast carries a built-in caution. Strong El Niño events do not always deliver record-breaking winter totals everywhere, and the last major super El Niño in the 2015–2016 season finished near seasonal averages in Tahoe and below average in Southern California.
That makes the 2026–2027 Winter Forecast Preview useful less as a guarantee than as a map of where the odds shift most sharply. For California and Nevada, the best early read is a winter with better snow potential in the southern and central mountain belts, while the north leans less aggressively cold and snowy.
