The Golden State Valkyries are 6.5-point favorites against the Dallas Wings on Monday, Aug. 17, when the teams meet for the third and final time this season. Golden State has already won both previous matchups and covered the spread in each game, which helps explain why the Valkyries enter this one as the clear betting favorite.
The case for Golden State is built on defense. Over the last two seasons, the Valkyries have gone 6-2 ATS against the Wings, and their defensive edge has been a major reason for that success. Dallas has also struggled to create a fast-paced game, as both teams are operating at or near the bottom of the league in pace. That points to a slow, half-court matchup with fewer possessions than a typical WNBA game.
Why the Under stands out
The total leans toward the Under because the style of play should be controlled and deliberate. Golden State averages 91.00 pace and just 62.7 field-goal attempts, while Dallas is expected to be pulled into that same slower rhythm. Golden State also allows only 79.3 points per game and owns a 103.7 defensive rating, numbers that support the idea that this game could stay lower scoring than the market might expect.
For Dallas, Paige Bueckers remains the player to watch. She is expected to face a tough matchup, but she has made at least two triples in three of her previous five games. She has also recorded at least six assists in four of her previous five games, showing she can still produce even when defenses focus on limiting her scoring chances.
On the Golden State side, Janelle Salaun is another name to monitor. She has scored 20-plus points in eight of her last nine contests, while Kiah Stokes has been mentioned as a player whose profile fits a slower, physical game. If the matchup stays in the half court, Golden State’s defense and Dallas’ recent form suggest the Valkyries are in position to control the game again.
With the season series on the line and both teams trending toward a lower-possession game, Golden State looks like the stronger side and the Under is the cleaner total play for Wings Vs Valkyries.
