Some long-range forecasts are suggesting further dry and sunny spells in the September weather forecast after this week turns wetter and cooler across the UK. The weather turned more unsettled on Tuesday, and temperatures are expected to fall by around 2 to 4C below the mid-August average.
That shift comes as meteorological summer ends on 31 August and attention turns to meteorological autumn. The forecast path now matters because it could decide whether the UK sees another hot spell after the current rain clears.
Wet weather this week
Wet weather is forecast for many this week, with heavy showers expected in many places. Much of the UK will see a mixture of sunshine and showers on Wednesday, while across Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England the showers will be heavy, thundery and prolonged at times.
Further south, the showers will be more scattered. On Thursday and Friday, further showers are expected, some heavy and thundery, and England and Wales will see some prolonged and slow-moving downpours, with the potential for flash flooding.
Wisley in Surrey
The dry spell at Wisley in Surrey ended overnight after 62 days without measurable rain. On Tuesday, many people experienced their first rain in around two months, but the coming days will not bring enough rain to change conditions everywhere.
A few days of rain will not be enough to alleviate the drought in two thirds of England and all of Wales. Places across England and Wales most in need of significant rain may not see much of it in the coming days, even with the heavier showers moving through.
September and autumn
In June, the Met Office and MeteoGroup predicted a hotter-than-average summer with an increased likelihood of heat spikes and heatwaves, and speculation has grown about another heatwave developing in September. The Met Office said it is likely to be the hottest summer on record, and even with cooler conditions this week, the mean average temperature would need to be considerably below average for the last two weeks of August to keep 2026 from surpassing the record set just last year.
Long-range forecasts are now looking ahead to meteorological autumn and suggesting further dry and sunny spells in September. Whether those spells develop into another heatwave is the question left open for readers watching for the next warm break after the rain.
