People in the UK are set for wetter, cooler weather this week, but some long-range forecasts are already pointing to dry and sunny spells in September and renewed heatwave speculation. Many people felt the first rain in around two months on Tuesday, after the weather turned more unsettled.
Temperatures are expected to sit about 2 to 4C below the mid-August average through this week. Much of the UK will then see a mix of sunshine and showers on Wednesday, before further showers on Thursday and Friday.
Met Office and MeteoGroup
Back in June, the Met Office and MeteoGroup predicted a hotter-than-average summer with a greater chance of heat spikes and heatwaves. That forecast has lined up with the summer so far, and the Met Office says it is likely to be the hottest summer on record.
The same broad forecast also feeds the current September talk. Meteorological summer ends on 31 August, and long-range outlooks are already looking ahead to meteorological autumn, covering September, October and November.
England and Wales
The rain arriving this week will not be enough to end the drought in two thirds of England and all of Wales. In England and Wales, Thursday and Friday may bring prolonged, slow-moving downpours, with the potential for flash flooding, while showers across Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England are expected to be heavy, thundery and prolonged at times.
That is why the question now is not whether the country gets wet weather, but whether the dry and sunny spells that some forecasts show for September are strong enough to produce a sixth heatwave of the year. For people in the UK, the immediate next step is simple: expect a cooler, unsettled week first, then watch whether September turns the pattern back toward warmth.
Back in June, the same forecast models that pointed to heat also pointed to the hotter-than-average summer. A wet week can interrupt that run, but the dry spell at Wisley in Surrey already ended after 62 days without measurable rain, and water levels at the Llwyn-On reservoir in South Wales were low enough to reveal an old stone bridge.
