The Sun newspaper asked a question that now sits at the centre of Labour's asylum policy: is the UK moving back toward a Rwanda-style crackdown? The Home Office said the UK is still exploring new models like return hubs, but it insisted these are not Rwanda-style plans.
That answer matters because the reported idea would apply only to failed asylum seekers whose claims and appeals have been exhausted, not to every person who crosses the Channel. Keir Starmer scrapped the Tories’ Rwanda scheme as one of his earliest acts as Prime Minister, calling it a “gimmick” and saying it had “never been a deterrent”.
Starmer’s Rwanda break
Starmer’s own record sits behind the new row. When he ended the Rwanda scheme, around 52,000 migrants had already been identified for deportation under that plan, which would have sent illegal arrivals to Rwanda shortly after arrival. Labour also scrapped the Tories’ Illegal Migration Act, which would have meant that people who arrived illegally would never be allowed to settle.
The problem for Labour is that the numbers have not moved in the party’s favour. Around 80,000 illegal migrants crossed the Channel after two years of Labour’s promise to “smash” the people smuggling gangs, and those crossings made up almost 40 per cent of all small boat arrivals since records began in 2018.
Home Office return hubs
The Home Office said the UK, like other European countries, continues to explore new models such as return hubs. In its response, it said the plans are not Rwanda style plans and said Rwanda style plans did not work.
Under the reported idea, failed asylum seekers whose claims and appeals have been exhausted could be sent to a third country if they cannot be deported to their home countries. The practical difference is narrow but important: a return hub would hold people after their case is finished, while the Rwanda scheme was built to remove people soon after arrival.
Alp Mehmet’s warning
Alp Mehmet said the implied plan to deal only with failed asylum seekers is “hardly radical” and “highly unlikely to deter either the gangs or migrants”. He added that if Ms Mahmood is serious about stopping illegal immigration, she should think about changes to the legal framework that would allow detention of illegal, undocumented arrivals, speedy processing and swift removal.
His criticism turns the argument back toward enforcement, not branding. A policy that leaves the courts, appeals process and removal powers intact may look different from Rwanda on paper, but it still has to deal with the same bottlenecks that have left almost 200,000 illegal migrants arriving by small boat between January 2018 and the end of March this year, with just 8,427 returned by then, a return rate of 4.3 per cent.
The vast majority of those returns were Albanians, following a return deal with Albania in 2024. For failed asylum seekers waiting for a decision, the unanswered issue is whether the UK will settle for a third-country holding model or push for a legal change that can speed up removal.
