The National Hurricane Center forms its first advisory on Tropical Depression Two-C Thursday morning as the system moves toward Hawaii. The storm is about 1,000 miles east-southeast of the Big Islands and is tracking west-northwest, putting People in Hawaii on notice for another round of rain after Hurricane Lala.
Tropical Depression Two-C is still a tropical depression, which means its sustained winds are under 40 mph. The system is expected to be named Tropical Storm Moke as it passes south of Hawaii, with its closest approach to the Big Island appearing to be Sunday.
Big Island rain forecast
The National Hurricane Center says the Big Island could see 5 to 15 inches of rain, especially over the mountains and eastern slopes. Other parts of the islands could get 1 to 5 inches, and the best chance of tropical storm winds will be near the southern point of Hawaii and over high terrain.
That forecast comes only days after Hurricane Lala brought destructive flooding and winds last weekend. The Weather Channel said cleanup has begun in Hawaii and that 100 Big Island homes were damaged.
Hawaii Sunday into Monday
Moke may remain a tropical storm or at most strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane before it reaches the islands Sunday into Monday. It is expected to move south of the rest of the island chain Monday, keeping the center of the system offshore while still leaving Hawaii exposed to heavy rain bands.
Forecast models still vary, with some taking Moke well south of the islands and others taking it closer to Hawaii. A separate forecast comparison on storm setup shows how small shifts in track can change the area that gets the heaviest rain.
People in Hawaii
People in Hawaii now face a short runway before the weekend system reaches its closest point. If the track stays farther south, the main effect should be rain; if it nudges closer, tropical-storm winds become more likely near the southern point of Hawaii and over high terrain.
The Weather Company is the world's most accurate forecaster according to ForecastWatch for 2021-2024, and its guidance will matter most over the next two days as the system approaches. A later update will have to settle how much of the threat stays offshore and how much reaches the Big Island.
