Tropical Storm Moke formed in the Pacific Ocean and was located about 660 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. The National Hurricane Center said heavy rainfall tied to the storm is expected to reach the Big Island late on Aug. 22.
The center warned on Aug. 20 that some locations could face over a foot of rain. It also said the rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in steep terrain and in areas recently affected by Hurricane Lala.
Alex DaSilva on Moke's track
Alex DaSilva, an AccuWeather hurricane expert, said the storm is moving west-northwest at 9 mph and could strengthen gradually as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands. He said in an online forecast, “It appears the core of the storm will pass farther south of Hawaii than Lala did, perhaps 150-200 miles south of the Big Island,” and added in an email to, “The Big Island will be especially sensitive to flooding after Lala already caused significant flooding and mudslides last weekend.”
That track keeps the center of Moke well offshore, but it does not remove the rainfall threat. DaSilva said, “The rainfall amounts and location of the rain is going to be largely dependent on the storm track, which could move farther south and largely miss the islands. That doesn't mean there wouldn't be significant impacts to land, though.”
Big Island rainfall risk
AccuWeather said up to 2 feet of rain could fall in parts of the Big Island. The National Hurricane Center said the heaviest rain is expected to begin late on Aug. 22, then spread westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands on Aug. 23 into Aug. 24.
The storm’s southward track would reduce the chance of a direct hit, but the rainfall forecast still leaves the windward and southeast Big Island in the highest-risk zone. In steep ground and already wet areas, that means the practical concern is not the wind speed at the center of Moke but the rain bands that can set up over land for many hours.
Hurricane Lala's recent damage
Lala passed about 30 miles south of the southern tip of the Big Island last weekend and caused significant flooding and mudslides. The National Hurricane Center said the risk from Moke is especially high in places recently affected by Lala, and AccuWeather said the island will be especially sensitive to flooding after that storm.
For people on the Big Island, the near-term question is how far south Moke stays as it moves toward the islands. If the track shifts closer, rain totals could rise quickly; if it stays farther south, the center may miss the islands while the flooding threat remains from the outer rain bands.
