Stew Mandel’s preseason CFB outlook is starting with a simple premise: in a 12-team College Football Playoff, the four programs he feels most confident about returning are Miami, Indiana, Ohio State and Oregon.
That is the core of his early projection for 2026, and it says a lot about how he views the current landscape. The 12-team format gives more teams a path into the Playoff, but it also raises the bar for staying there. Mandel’s list is not about the entire field. It is about the programs he thinks are best positioned to repeat.
Miami sits at the top of his list for a clear reason. Mandel said the Canes are “a level or two above everyone else in their conference,” which gives them a separation edge that matters in preseason forecasting. In a sport where conference schedules can quickly change the picture, having that kind of gap can be the difference between surviving the year and slipping into the 10-2 range that still leaves plenty of room for error.
His bigger point is that the new Playoff structure still has plenty of room for teams from the Big Ten and SEC, even when records are not spotless. Mandel noted that “there is going to be at least one 9-3 Big Ten or SEC team in the Playoff this year,” a reminder that the strongest leagues can still push teams into the field even without a perfect season.
Why Miami stands out
Miami’s case is the most direct one in Mandel’s projection. If a team is clearly ahead of the rest of its league, it does not need to run the table to make a return trip. It just needs to avoid the kind of loss accumulation that can happen when a conference does not have a true top tier.
That matters even more in preseason discussions, when projections are based on the path as much as the roster. Miami’s position inside the ACC gives it a different kind of runway than a team in a league where multiple contenders are likely to beat each other up.
The Big Ten and SEC factor
Ohio State and Oregon are the other two teams on Mandel’s repeat list, and both fit the broader reality of the expanded Playoff era. The Big Ten and SEC remain the conferences most likely to produce teams that can survive a few setbacks and still land in the bracket.
The SEC’s ninth conference game is also part of that discussion. Mandel’s point is that extra league games can make records less tidy, which is one reason a 9-3 team can still stay in Playoff contention. In other words, the path to the field is not only about going undefeated. It is also about navigating a tougher schedule better than the teams around you.
Indiana is the outlier in the group, but it fits the same preseason exercise: identifying the teams Mandel believes have the clearest path back to the College Football Playoff in 2026. With the bracket still relatively new, these kinds of projections matter because they shape the early conversation around who can repeat and who will need a major jump just to get back into the mix.
For now, Mandel’s answer is Miami, Indiana, Ohio State and Oregon. That is the short list, and it gives an early read on where he thinks the most reliable Playoff résumés are likely to come from.
Weekly schedule note begins
The broader preseason piece also starts a weekly list of non-Big Ten, non-SEC games for 2026, including NC State at Virginia on Aug. 29 after the game was relocated from Brazil, and Colorado at Georgia Tech on Sept. 3. Those matchups add to the early-season backdrop, but Mandel’s main message is already clear: when it comes to repeat Playoff teams, these four are the ones he trusts most.
