Met Office data points to a September UK warm weather forecast that could lift temperatures to 28C or 29C across parts of England from September 5 to September 7. People in southern, western, eastern and central England, plus Yorkshire, are the main areas to watch, but the same forecast also keeps rain and unsettled conditions in play.
The GFS weather model puts 28C across southern and western England on September 5, with similar peaks spreading as far north as Yorkshire on September 6. On September 7, it shows 29C in eastern and western England and 27C to 28C across central and southern regions.
Met Office August 31 to September 9
The Met Office forecast for August 31 to September 9 says temperatures are likely to be near average, even as some short-lived warm or very warm spells are possible, especially in the south. It also says unsettled conditions with showers or longer spells of rain are likely across all areas at times, with rainfall probably above average for the time of year and the wettest conditions in the northwest.
Some strong winds are possible at times, while some drier and more settled interludes could develop, perhaps becoming longer across southern areas later in the period. That leaves the warmest burst squeezed between periods of rain, rather than setting up a run of stable high temperatures.
England heatwave threshold
The Met Office classifies an official heatwave when temperatures reach the heatwave threshold for 3 consecutive days. That threshold sits at 28C in the south-east and drops to 25C further away from the south-east, which means the same reading can meet the heatwave mark in one area and miss it in another.
Temperatures are set to dip into the low-20s over the weekend before the early-September rise. The question for people in England is whether the heat builds long enough in one place to clear the threshold, or whether the rain breaks it up first.
Western Europe heat context
The forecast lands after a summer that has already surpassed the previous record of 19 days set in 1995, and after Western Europe’s hottest June on record at 20.74C around the clock. That June figure stood more than 3C above the long-term average.
People in England facing the warmest spell should plan for a short-lived surge rather than an extended run of heat. The Met Office forecast points to a narrow window for 28C to 29C, but the same period still carries showers, rain and a chance of stronger winds.
