Tuesday at the U.S. Open already had the look of a long day in Queens, and the forecast only makes it more complicated. The Weather Channel is calling for thunderstorms in New York City during the morning and afternoon, with an 85 percent chance of thunderstorms at 11 a.m. ET and the possibility that some of them may be severe. For a tournament built on precision scheduling, that is the kind of forecast that can change the entire rhythm of the day.
The most immediate concern is the group of matches set for around 11:30 a.m. ET at Arthur Ashe Stadium, where Madison Keys vs. Alina Korneeva and Taylor Fritz vs. Darwin Blanch are scheduled. Later, around 7 p.m. ET, Coco Gauff vs. Zeynep Sönmez and Alexander Zverev vs. Lorenzo Sonego are on the slate. With thunderstorms forecast through much of Tuesday, the timing matters as much as the rain itself. A delay in the morning can spill into the afternoon, and an already crowded schedule can become even harder to manage.
What the forecast suggests for Day 3
The numbers point to a real disruption risk, not just a passing shower. The forecast includes 59 percent, 60 percent and 48 percent chances at different points in the day, with 0.16 inches of rain also in the mix. That is enough uncertainty to create stop-start conditions even if play is not wiped out completely. In other words, the issue is not only whether matches are delayed, but how often they have to be paused and reset.
That kind of disruption can matter at a major tournament because it changes more than the clock. It alters warmup routines, court conditions and the mental rhythm of players who may be forced to wait around longer than planned. The U.S. Open will use its official website to announce any weather-related schedule changes, which is the practical detail fans will be watching most closely as Tuesday unfolds.
The broader context is familiar. Rain has a way of reshaping tennis days, and it has already done so in other events, including the Iași Open final postponed to Monday, July 20 as rain delays Mayar Sherif and Paula Badosa showdown. That does not mean the U.S. Open is headed for the same outcome, but it does underline how quickly weather can turn a clean schedule into an elastic one.
For now, the story is simple: the tennis is scheduled, but the weather may decide how much of it is actually played on time. And with thunderstorms forecast in Queens for much of Tuesday, the 2026 U.S. Open Day 3 slate feels vulnerable before the first ball is even struck.
