The National Weather Service said Tuesday that Tropical Storm Marie could affect San Diego after Invest 95-E, an area of low pressure and thunderstorms several hundred miles off the southern coast of Mexico, showed a 90% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within 48 hours.
The system was still under monitoring, and the forecast pointed to two possible tracks: a favored westward path into the Pacific Ocean or a less likely northward path toward San Diego, Los Angeles and northwestern Mexico. For people in San Diego and other parts of Southern California, the near-term concern is not landfall alone but whether swells, high tides and tropical moisture line up during Labor Day weekend.
Invest 95-E and Marie
The National Hurricane Center designated the system Invest 95-E while the National Weather Service tracked it off Mexico. The naming helps separate a developing disturbance from a fully formed storm, but the practical question for coastal areas is whether the system organizes fast enough to keep the northward option in play.
The National Weather Service said long-range forecasts carry significant uncertainty, especially when a system has not yet developed. That uncertainty leaves the track question open, even though the westward route was described as the more favored one.
San Diego coastal risk
Potential impacts for San Diego included coastal flooding risk as astronomical high tides were expected during the week of Labor Day. High tides were forecast to reach 6.2 to 6.5 feet, and associated tropical swells were expected Saturday or Sunday.
The National Weather Service also said it was still way too early to discuss expected rainfall totals. Even so, tropical moisture may still be funneled into the area during Labor Day weekend if the system stays farther out to sea.
National Weather Service updates
The National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center said they would continue monitoring the system and providing updates. For readers in San Diego and across Southern California, the immediate next step is to watch for changes in track and timing, because those two pieces will decide whether the main effects stay offshore or reach the coast.
Will the system actually develop and which track it takes over the next several days will determine whether Marie remains a coastal watch item or becomes a direct weekend concern.
