Jessica Pegula opened as a heavy -670 favorite over Leylah Fernandez ahead of their US Open Round 3 meeting on September 4, 2026, with the match set for 11:30 AM ET at Arthur Ashe Stadium. Fernandez was listed at +438, a number that reflects how strongly the market viewed Pegula entering the third round.
The betting line was backed up by the underlying numbers. On August 31, 2026, Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings showed Pegula ahead of Fernandez, and the matchup also came with a recent head-to-head edge for the World No. 3. Pegula beat Fernandez in March 2026 in Miami, giving her a 3-1 record in their four meetings since 2024.
Why Pegula was the clear favorite
This series has been played almost entirely on familiar ground. Since 2024, all four meetings between Pegula and Fernandez have taken place at major North American hard-court tournaments, which gives both players a well-defined scouting report. But the recent results have leaned Pegula’s way, including that decisive win in Miami in March 2026.
Fernandez still has a win over Pegula in 2025, so this is not a one-sided matchup from a historical standpoint. Even so, the combination of current form indicators, Elo ratings and recent head-to-head results pointed to Pegula as the more reliable pick heading into Round 3.
What to watch in Round 3
The most interesting question is whether Fernandez can turn the matchup back in her favor at the US Open. She enters as the World No. 33, and while the market clearly favors Pegula, the past meetings suggest Fernandez can make this competitive if she finds the right rhythm early.
For Pegula, the task is straightforward: handle a player she knows well and avoid giving Fernandez a foothold. For Fernandez, the opportunity is bigger than the odds suggest. A win over a top seed at this stage would change the tone of her tournament quickly.
