Arthur Gea was backed to beat Michael Zheng in Saturday September 5's US Open third-round match, with the French player priced at 5/4 after winning both previous meetings between the pair this year on hardcourt.
The recommendation came in Andy Schooler's betting column for the day's third-round matches, and the case for Gea was built around recent form and a clear head-to-head edge. Gea had already beaten Zheng twice this year, including a 0-6 6-4 6-0 win in Los Cabos.
Why Gea appealed
Gea's recent run added to the argument. He had won 13 of his last 15 matches and had also recently collected his maiden ATP crown in Los Cabos. That kind of momentum matters in a short-format betting preview, especially when it comes against an opponent who had only qualified at Wimbledon and Cincinnati before reaching the US Open main draw.
Zheng's route into the tournament was impressive, but the matchup history still leaned strongly toward Gea. The pair's two meetings this year both came on hardcourt, and both went Gea's way, making the 5/4 price look playable for bettors looking for a form-based edge.
What the previous meetings showed
The first clue was the scorelines. Gea's 0-6 6-4 6-0 win in Los Cabos showed how quickly the momentum in the matchup could swing. More importantly, it confirmed that Gea had already solved Zheng on the same surface they would play on again at the US Open.
That is usually enough to give a bettor confidence in a matchup like this. With Gea in form, the hardcourt head-to-head already settled in his favor, and Zheng stepping into a first major third-round spot after qualifying through Wimbledon and Cincinnati, the Frenchman was the selection at 5/4.
