Kevin Thompson said the Social Security COLA announcement date for 2027 is October 14, and the next inflation report on September 11 will help shape the final number. That matters for more than 70 million Americans whose benefits are tied to the annual adjustment.
Thompson, CEO of 9i Capital Group and host of the 9innings podcast, said August inflation is one of the months built into the three-month calculation used for Social Security COLAs. The Senior Citizens League currently projects the 2027 COLA at about 3.6 percent, which would raise the average monthly retirement benefit from about $2,086 to about $2,161 before Medicare premium deductions.
Kevin Thompson on August inflation
Thompson said, "August inflation is important because it is part of the three-month period used to calculate the Social Security COLA, along with September." He also said, "Any upside surprise in inflation could push the COLA higher, while softer inflation could keep the increase relatively modest."
The calculation uses the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, known as CPI-W, with July, August and September figures combined to produce the annual adjustment. The September 11 release will be the second-to-last piece of data needed before the official October 14 announcement.
Social Security COLA in 2027
More than 70 million Americans receive retirement, disability, or Supplemental Security Income benefits affected by Social Security COLAs. A 3.6 percent increase would equal roughly $75 more each month for the average retirement benefit, compared with the 2.8 percent adjustment retirees received for 2026.
The practical question for beneficiaries is not whether the October announcement will move benefits, but how far. If August inflation comes in hotter than expected, forecasts for the 2027 COLA could rise above 3.6 percent; if inflation cools, projections could move lower before Social Security makes the October 14 announcement.
