NOAA said El Niño heavy snow is increasingly likely for the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27, with a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event. California and the Southeast are among the areas expected to feel the earliest effects as the pattern strengthens over the Pacific Ocean and alters storm tracks across the United States.
Tony Fracasso, a meteorologist with the Weather Prediction Center, said the eastern Pacific sea-surface temperatures are already above normal and should stay that way into winter. He said, "El Niño means the sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific, along the equator, so off the coast of South America, off the coast of Central America, are above normal" and added, "That's where they are now, and that's what the forecast will be going into the winter."
NOAA's August 13 forecast
NOAA wrote in its August 13 discussion that El Niño was expected to keep strengthening through the end of this year. The agency also predicted a 69 percent chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niños dating back to 1950, a forecast that has now been overtaken by the greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in the 2026-27 cold season.
The forecast matters because Fracasso said, "It can affect the storm track across the country, and the amount of warm air that it could bring in over the country and keep the colder air out of the lower 48." In practical terms, that points to wetter, stormier conditions in California and the Southeast, with more rain along the Gulf and potentially the Carolinas, while some areas farther north around the Great Lakes may see drier conditions.
California, the Southeast
California and the Southeast could see some of the greatest impacts. NOAA said California is likely to see more storms, while states in the Gulf and potentially the Carolinas could see much wetter conditions this year. Some areas out West, including Nevada, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona, could also see more snow in the winter.
The comparison with past El Niños gives the forecast its weight. The 1997-98 Super El Niño contributed to destructive flooding in California and Peru, and the 2015-16 event was associated with global temperature records and widespread climate disruptions. Every El Niño is different, though, and Fracasso said there have been instances where it does not bring as much rain or snow to California.
Lower 48 winter
For Americans in the lower 48, the next several months into early 2027 are the period to watch as the pattern matures. NOAA's forecast will be tested through the coming winter, and the specific amount of rain or snow each affected state gets will depend on how the atmosphere responds as those eastern Pacific waters stay warm.
