Alcaraz Vs Shelton is one of those matchups that looks competitive on paper until the evidence starts piling up. Carlos Alcaraz has won all three meetings, and he arrives at the U.S. Open still carrying the aura of a defending champion who knows how to raise his level when the tournament gets serious.
That does not make Ben Shelton irrelevant to the conversation. He has already shown he can reach the semifinals at the U.S. Open, which he did in 2023, and he again looks capable of making noise in New York. But the problem, from his point of view, is that Alcaraz has repeatedly found the cleaner answers. Their meetings tell the story: Shelton lost to Alcaraz at the ATP Masters 1000 Canada in 2023, lost again on hard courts at the Laver Cup in 2024, and then fell in four sets in Round 4 of the French Open in 2025.
What the numbers say about this matchup
The current form only sharpens that edge. At the 2026 U.S. Open, Alcaraz has won three of his four matches in straight sets despite missing a lot of time with a wrist injury. That is the profile of a player who is not just surviving, but settling into the tournament on his own terms. Shelton, by contrast, has dropped three sets across four matches. That is not a collapse, but it does suggest he has had to work harder to get through the draw.
The most recent sign of Shelton’s level was his Round 4 win over Stefanos Tsitsipas, 6-2, 6-3, 6-4. That result matters because it shows he can still handle a high-profile opponent with authority. It also matters because it may be the clearest warning that he can make this match uncomfortable if Alcaraz starts slowly. Still, the larger pattern remains unchanged: Shelton has not yet found a way to beat him.
Why Alcaraz still holds the edge
This is the part that separates a dangerous matchup from a true coin flip. Shelton has the kind of serve and aggression that can shorten points, but Alcaraz has already proven he can absorb that pressure and redirect the match. He did it in 2025 at the French Open, where he beat Shelton in four sets, and he has done it before on hard courts as well. In other words, he has not just won; he has won across different settings.
That versatility is why Alcaraz is heavily favored to advance to the semifinals on Tuesday. He is also the player with the broader tournament ceiling, especially as he returns to the national stage and chases a third U.S. Open title. Shelton has the crowd, the power and the upside. Alcaraz has the track record, the balance and, most importantly, the answers. Until Shelton proves he can change that dynamic, Alcaraz Vs Shelton remains a matchup with a clear favorite for a reason.
