Liverpool and Atlético Madrid begin their 2026-27 Champions League campaigns at Anfield on Wednesday, September 9, and the early signs point to the home side starting as favourites. The Opta supercomputer gives Liverpool a 53 percent chance of victory, with Atlético at 23.5 percent, in a meeting that already carries some history.
The game comes after a useful week for Liverpool, who beat Ipswich 2-0 at Portman Road on Friday before Andoni Iraola got his first win as Liverpool manager over the weekend. That Ipswich result was built on a fast start, with Alexander Isak scoring twice in the opening 10 minutes and Bradley Barcola making his debut as a second-half substitute. Liverpool had also gone into that run on the back of two 2-2 draws, so the clean sheet and the win offered a clearer sense of rhythm.
Atlético arrive in a different place. Diego Simeone’s side lost 3-0 away to Athletic Bilbao at San Mames Stadium on Saturday, a result that ended their unbeaten start to the season. Simeone said his team had “two minutes of inattention and poor decision-making in situations we should have handled better,” adding that Bilbao “capitalised on that lapse.”
Why Liverpool hold the edge
The numbers, at least, suggest Liverpool have the stronger position before a ball is kicked in the Champions League league phase. They are at home, they are coming in off a win, and the Opta view gives them the clearer route to three points.
There is also a small but useful recent head-to-head edge. The clubs have met nine times before, with Liverpool leading the record by four wins to three. That does not decide anything on its own, but it does underline that this is not a new or unfamiliar European pairing.
For Liverpool, the task is to turn that advantage into a proper opening-night performance. A 2-0 win and a first clean sheet under Iraola are a decent base, but a Champions League opener at Anfield demands more control than simply getting by.
Atlético need a response quickly
For Atlético, the key question is how quickly they can recover from that defeat in Bilbao. Simeone’s words were blunt about the standard required, saying his side were good in the first half but that “the game got away from us” in those few minutes, and that they “lacked in the second half everything that we had in the first.”
That is the danger for any away side at Anfield: if the structure slips, the game can move away from you fast. Atlético have enough experience and enough tactical discipline to make this competitive, but they now have to show a stronger version of themselves than the one that faded against Athletic.
Wednesday night is therefore more than a routine group-stage opener. It is Liverpool’s first step in Europe this season, Atlético’s chance to reset, and an early test of whether the pre-match numbers match the reality on the pitch.
