MFL managers get two clear Week 1 signals: start Jaxson Dart against Dallas and sit Patrick Mahomes against Denver. The matchup guide leans on a 1-100 points system, and it pushes one quarterback into a shootout while warning against another whose offense is expected to lean on the run.
Jaxson Dart and Dallas
“Jaxson Dart has the chance to put up massive points in a shootout with Dallas — a team with a soft secondary.” That is the strongest start call in the guide, and it comes with a direct matchup edge: Dallas was the worst team in vertical FPPG allowed last year. For fantasy players, that points to downfield production rather than safe, low-ceiling volume.
The guide’s scoring method gives weight to fantasy points allowed, game script, and line play on both sides of the ball. That is why a quarterback facing a weak secondary rises fast, while a player in a lower-volume offense can slide even if his name carries more weight on draft day. Jalen Hurts sits atop the season-long quarterback matchup total for the same reason: Washington ranked 28th in vertical FPPG allowed last year and 27th in TE fantasy points allowed.
Patrick Mahomes and Denver
Mahomes lands on the sit side because the Chiefs have made it clear they will run the ball a lot more this year, especially early on. “There are myriad reasons to sit Mahomes.” The matchup gets even tighter against Denver because Patrick Surtain allowed 5 yards per target last year and Ja’Quan McMillian allowed 5.9 yards per target, a pair of numbers that leave less room for easy fantasy production through the air.
The same guide also gives Shough a usable Week 1 path. He ended last season with a six-game streak of 17+ points and now draws a banged-up Detroit secondary without both of its starting safeties. That makes the list more than a one-quarterback call; it sets up the week’s sharpest passing-game starts and sits in one place.
Running backs and injury watch
The backfield calls matter too. Omarion Hampton posted a higher yards per carry total than Keaton Mitchell in the breakaway rushing metric, while the Cardinals rush defense ranked 27th in fantasy points allowed on plus blocking plays. The Bears were even worse, finishing last in plus blocking rate allowed, so the matchup board leaves room for strong running back outcomes when blocking is working in front of them.
Chuba Hubbard and Jonathon Brooks may or may not be healthy enough to play in Week 1, and that keeps their status tied to lineup decisions rather than name value. Fantasy managers who need a safe start should treat the guide as a setup tool, not a ranking sheet: Dart gets the green light against Dallas, Mahomes goes to the bench against Denver, and the rest of the week’s decisions should follow the same matchup logic instead of reputation.
