The El Niño UK autumn forecast got firmer on Wednesday as El Niño strengthened further, with the Climate Prediction Center putting the odds of a very strong event above 90% and the chance of a historic one at 75% from October through December. That comes as the Atlantic hurricane season has entered its peak period, when the pattern can reshape both the Atlantic Basin and the Eastern and Central Pacific basins.
Bryan Norcross on El Niño
Bryan Norcross said the revised hurricane season forecast tracks with a Super El Niño brewing. A Super El Niño is defined by water temperatures in the El Niño zone reaching at least 2 degrees Celsius above average for at least three consecutive months, which is the threshold behind the historic label now attached to the strongest outlook.
El Niño is one phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and the shift matters because warmer water across the central and eastern Pacific changes the subtropical jet stream. During El Niño, that jet stream typically extends well into the Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean, while storm activity tends to increase in the Eastern and Central Pacific.
Colorado State University Forecast
Colorado State University lowered its Atlantic hurricane season forecast on Wednesday, citing the high potential for a very strong El Niño during the peak of the season. NOAA said El Niño conditions had strengthened significantly in the Central Pacific, and NOAA also put the chance of historic strength between October and December 2026 at 75%.
The numbers line up with the season so far. The Pacific has produced 16 named storms, including six hurricanes, three of them reaching major hurricane status. The Atlantic has produced five named storms and no hurricanes as the climatological peak of the season arrived.
Atlantic Basin Pressure
That split is the practical problem for the Atlantic Basin. El Niño usually reduces tropical cyclone activity there even as the Eastern and Central Pacific basins turn more active, and the source’s exclusive analysis tied the revised forecast to that growing imbalance. FOX Forecast Center said, “Because El Niño concentrates its deepest pool of warm water and lowest wind shear across the central and eastern Pacific, it transforms that basin into a hyper-fueled engine for major hurricanes and monster typhoons”.
For the UK, the autumn forecast in the source is linked to the broader weather pattern rather than a local storm count. The article says El Niño can influence global weather patterns outside hurricane season, but how much that changes the UK autumn forecast is left unanswered even as the Pacific signal keeps strengthening.
