The Met Office El Niño forecast points to wetter and warmer-than-normal weather across the UK this autumn. Ian Lisk said the latest seasonal forecasts suggest an increased likelihood of wetter than average conditions as autumn progresses, with the strongest effects expected from November.
The same forecast carries two pressures at once. Wetter weather raises the chance of flooding, while the Environment Agency says some drought-hit places may get help from the extra rain only if supplies recover all the way back to normal.
Met Office autumn outlook
El Niño is the warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean, and the Met Office says the event is expected to peak in November or December. Ian Lisk said: “The latest seasonal forecasts suggest an increased likelihood of wetter than average conditions as we move through autumn, which would be consistent with the historical influence of El Niño events”.
He also said: “While this event may become one of the strongest El Niño events on record, that does not automatically mean more severe impacts for the UK”. That is the practical caution in the forecast: a stronger signal in the Pacific does not translate into a fixed outcome for every part of the UK.
Environment Agency drought status
On Thursday, the Environment Agency National Drought Group met and said there had so far been no change to the drought status. Helen Wakeham, the Director of Water at the Environment Agency, said “drought recovery is a very long process”.
Wakeham said drought recovery only ends once reservoirs, rivers and groundwater supplies are back to normal. For People in the UK living in areas where water supplies are still strained, wetter weeks may help, but the formal drought picture has not yet shifted.
Flooding risk across the UK
The Met Office says above-average UK temperatures are expected because of a warming climate and unusually high sea temperatures around the UK. It also says wet and windy weather should be higher than normal, particularly from November, which adds to the risk of flooding in already exposed places.
That makes the seasonal outlook useful in a narrow, practical way: the UK is not being told to expect one uniform autumn, but to prepare for a season that can swing between dry recovery and heavier rain. The forecast does not give a regional breakdown, so readers in flood-prone areas and drought-affected areas are left with the same broad signal rather than a local timetable.
The immediate next marker is the expected peak in November or December, when the El Niño signal should be strongest and the wet, windy part of the forecast becomes most relevant for the rest of autumn.
