France go into Saturday’s FIBA Women’s World Cup semifinal against Germany as a 12.5-point favorite, and Brad Thomas says he is willing to lay the points with the French side. That is a strong market position, but it also reflects how France have looked throughout the tournament: efficient, aggressive and difficult to live with offensively.
Germany, though, arrive with momentum of their own. They suffered a 30-point loss to Spain at the start of the tournament, but have since won four straight games and now have the advantage of playing in front of their home crowd in Berlin. That combination makes this a far more interesting semifinal than the price alone might suggest.
France have looked the more convincing side
The numbers backing France are hard to ignore. They have been dominant offensively across the tournament, scoring 98.8 points per game while shooting 61.4% overall and 45.7% from the field in the same stretch. They have also moved the ball at a high level, averaging more than 26 assists per game, which is usually a sign of a team that is not relying on one-off scoring bursts.
Brad Thomas’ case is straightforward: France have already shown they can control this matchup. In March, they beat Germany 85-63 in World Cup qualifying, and they also won 84-71 in the 2024 Olympic quarterfinals. That is a useful recent sample when assessing a semifinal line of 12.5 points.
Germany’s home momentum matters
Germany have earned their place in the last four by responding well after that opening setback. Their quarterfinal win over Belgium, 93-74, showed a side that can score enough to stay in the conversation if the game opens up. Nyara Sabally was central to that effort with 16 points and 12 rebounds, while Leonie Fiebich added 17 points and 10 rebounds.
That is why the home crowd in Berlin matters so much. Germany are not just an underdog on paper; they are also a team playing with belief after a fourth straight win. If they can keep France from turning the game into a fast, free-flowing contest, they have at least a route to making this competitive.
The key question: can Germany slow the tempo?
The central issue is whether Germany can disrupt France’s rhythm. France have been the better offensive team, and the recent head-to-head results point in the same direction. Germany, however, have shown they can recover from an early blow and build momentum quickly.
That leaves Saturday as a classic semifinal test: France carry the stronger form and the better numbers, while Germany bring home support and the confidence of four straight wins. Thomas is backing the favorite, but the setting in Berlin gives the underdog a real chance to make France work for every point.
What comes next is simple enough. The winner moves into the final, and for France the expectation is clear: anything less than a controlled performance would be a surprise.
