The Senior Citizens League said on September 11, 2026, that its social security COLA 2027 forecast is 3.5 percent. If that estimate holds, current Social Security beneficiaries would see the average monthly check rise by $67.90, to $2,007.98.
Shannon Benton and TSCL
Shannon Benton, executive director of The Senior Citizens League, said in the release, “The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) is one of the nation’s largest nonpartisan seniors’ groups.” TSCL also said its model now points to a COLA that is 0.1 percentage points lower than last month’s estimate.
The group issues a new prediction each month using its statistical model. That model incorporates the Consumer Price Index, the Federal Reserve interest rate, and the national unemployment rate, and TSCL said v1.2, released in January 2025, shifted its data handling to the federal fiscal year rather than the calendar year.
CPI-W and the October 14th announcement
The forecast lines up with the latest CPI-W readings. The August CPI-W came in at 3.5 percent, after the July CPI-W was 3.4 percent, and the government bases the COLA on the average yearly change in CPI-W for July, August, and September.
The Social Security Administration will announce the official 2027 COLA on October 14th. TSCL said the 3.5 percent projection would be 0.7 percentage points higher than the 2026 COLA of 2.8 percent and 1.0 percentage point above the 2025 COLA of 2.5 percent.
Alex Moore at TSCL
Alex Moore, TSCL’s statistician, said in the release, “For additional information about the model, contact Alex Moore, TSCL’s statistician, at [email protected].” For current Social Security recipients, the immediate takeaway is the projected monthly increase, while the official figure will come with the October 14th announcement.
