Donald Tusk said Carney EU talk cannot be separated from a harder warning: intelligence assessments point to plans for hybrid strikes using drones and missiles against countries supporting Ukraine, including Poland. Tusk told parliament that Poland must speak with one voice on border security, airspace, and the safety of homes.
He described the latest intelligence as “very consistent and convincing” and said Russia would try to present any incident as an accident. Tusk also said the aim would be to weaken Nato’s resolve to use Article 5 and to make that pledge look more theoretical than practical.
Poland and the eastern flank
Tusk said there is a real risk that drones or other projectiles could be launched into the territory of one or more Nato countries on the eastern flank and could even cause damage. He said such recurring incidents would be used as proof of Nato’s helplessness to respond in a united manner. Poland, in his account, is not facing invasion but a period of pressure built around provocations and incidents.
That distinction matters for how Poland and other countries supporting Ukraine read the warning. Tusk said there is nothing to suggest an invasion, yet he told lawmakers that Poland will certainly be the target of provocations and incidents far more dangerous than those faced so far. He added that Poland is likely to need allied loyalty under Article 5 more than Portugal or Ireland.
Article 5 and Russia
Tusk cast the threat as political as well as military. He warned right-wing opposition parties that inciting hostility towards the European Union, allies, and Ukrainians is simply implementing Russia’s strategy, and he said some politicians in the west, in the United States, and in Europe are not thinking about how to defend Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.
He went further, saying there are political forces gaining strength in European countries that are looking for an excuse not to die for Poland, Latvia, or Lithuania. In the same speech, Tusk said Russia’s plan would be to paralyse or weaken Nato’s resolve, using incidents that can be described away as accidental while testing how much unity remains behind Article 5.
Donald Tusk's warning
Tusk ended by saying, “So we must pass this test – all of us, both politicians and the nation as a whole.” The next pressure point is not a formal deadline but the response inside Poland and Nato: whether governments treat the warning as a one-off alarm or as a guide to repeated incidents on the alliance’s eastern flank.
