Donald Trump said the United States is working on a massive potash deal with Belarus that would come at a price “substantially less” than what the country is paying Canada. He posted the claim on Truth Social on Monday, saying the lower pricing would be “very good news” for farmers and ranchers.
Trump's Truth Social potash claim
“The United States is working on a massive Deal with respect to the purchase of Potash from Belarus. The pricing would be for substantially less than we are currently paying to Canada, very good news for our Farmers and Ranchers. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” Trump wrote.
Canada is the world's largest exporter of potash, and Trump's trade war with Canada has disrupted the U.S. market for the fertilizer ingredient. If the United States shifts more supply toward Belarus, the immediate pressure point is price: potash is a key input in modern agriculture, so a lower buy price could flow through to farm costs if the deal is completed on those terms.
Belarus and Alexander Lukashenko
Belarus is led by Alexander Lukashenko, who has held power since 1994. The UN said in February that his government had committed crimes against humanity, and a UN report found that men and women in detention in Belarus had been routinely subjected to torture and ill-treatment.
That makes the proposed purchase more than a simple sourcing move. Trump is seeking cheaper potash from a government the UN has tied to severe abuses, while saying the result would help U.S. farmers and ranchers by lowering what they pay versus Canada. The deal is still being framed as a work in progress, so the practical question for buyers is whether any new supply line actually gets built and on what pricing terms.
CF Industries and Nutrien
CF Industries stocks fell after reports of a fertilizer deal with Belarus were published, and Nutrien stocks fell as well. Those moves show the market is treating the Belarus potash angle as more than rhetoric, even before any final terms are laid out.
For U.S. farmers and ranchers, the next issue is simple: whether Trump's push produces real supply at a lower price than Canada’s. Until that happens, the trade fight and the fertilizer market remain tied together by one number Trump has already put in public — substantially less.
