The market has made its view pretty clear: in Reds vs. Blue Jays on Friday, Sept. 25, Toronto opened as a -135 favorite, and the case for backing the home side is built on more than simple home-field comfort. This is the Blue Jays’ final homestand of the season, and even with Toronto limping toward the finish line, there is still a decent argument that this is the better spot to trust them.
The biggest reason is Nick Lodolo. The Reds left-hander has been described as having one of the worst seasons of his five-year career, and the advanced numbers help explain why. He enters with a 6.42 xERA, a.486 xSLG allowed and a.293 xBA, which is a difficult combination to ignore for a pitcher facing a lineup that can do damage when the ball is lifted. He has also allowed a.813 OPS to George Springer at Rogers Centre this season, which matters more here than it might in a random September game. Springer is likely in his final games as a Blue Jay, and the home crowd should have every reason to expect one more strong showing.
Why the matchup points Toronto’s way
Dustin Saracini’s read was blunt: he is comfortably fading Lodolo in this spot. That makes sense when the profile is this poor, especially against a Toronto team that has enough incentive to produce something memorable for the crowd. The Blue Jays may not be peaking, but that does not mean they are without an edge, particularly at home and particularly against a starter whose current season has not resembled his earlier promise.
That earlier promise is worth remembering because Lodolo did break into the league in 2022, but the current version has not been nearly as reliable. There is also recent context that keeps Toronto’s bats in play: earlier this year, Jose Soriano threw a seven-inning, two-hit, 10-strikeout shutout against this same team while with the Los Angeles Angels. That does not guarantee a repeat, but it does show Toronto can be vulnerable when a pitcher is on.
At the same time, this is not just a pitcher-hunting argument. Springer’s home numbers and the emotional layer around the Blue Jays’ final homestand give Toronto a meaningful spark, and Saracini said the club should be able to give the crowd something to cheer about. With the Reds coming in and Lodolo carrying a rough statistical profile, the favorite tag looks justified.
The broader takeaway is simple: Reds vs. Blue Jays feels less like a coin flip than a spot where Toronto has the cleaner combination of motivation, matchup and venue. In a late-season game where energy can be uneven, that is often enough to tilt the board.
