Louisville is a 13.5-point favorite over Wake Forest for Saturday’s Week 4 game at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium in Louisville, Ky. The matchup is set for noon ET, with a 56.5 total attached to a game that now looks like a clear early test for both teams.
Louisville enters after putting up 41 points against SMU. That result came with help from three SMU turnovers, but it also showed the Cardinals could make enough plays on the ground to control the game. Lincoln Kienholz was clean in that win, and Louisville will try to carry that momentum into another home game.
Wake Forest, though, brings a defense that has already given Louisville a reason to pay attention. In 2025, the Demon Deacons emerged as a top-tier defense under coordinator Scott Hazelton, and they returned nine starters in 2026. That experience has shown up early. A week before this trip to Louisville, Wake Forest limited Miami to 26 yards on its final six possessions, forcing three-and-outs on four of those drives.
Why Wake Forest's defense matters
The source of the line is fairly easy to see: Louisville has the better overall profile, but Wake Forest’s defense has the kind of shape that can slow a favorite if the pressure arrives again. The Demon Deacons held Purdue to 3.2 yards per carry and Miami to 4.6 yards per carry, showing they can keep an offense from finding easy rhythm on the ground.
That makes the matchup more interesting than a standard double-digit spread. Louisville averaged 6.5 yards per attempt against SMU, and its offense looked efficient enough to create separation. But if Wake Forest can recreate the kind of disruption it showed against Miami, this could turn into a much tighter game than the opening line suggests.
For now, Louisville has the bigger offensive number and home-field advantage, while Wake Forest has the defensive resume that could keep it competitive. That combination explains why the Cardinals opened as a 13.5-point favorite, even with a total sitting at 56.5.
