James Talarico Texas voter polling data changed again this week, but not in his favor: two new Texas polls still put him ahead of Ken Paxton, yet both showed the gap tightening. The smaller margins leave a competitive Texas Senate battle headed into the November midterms.
Texas Public Opinion Research surveyed 1,007 likely Texas voters from September 19 to 22 and found Talarico ahead 49 percent to 44 percent. That was narrower than its August 21 to 24 poll of 1,000 likely Texas voters, which had him up 48 percent to 42 percent.
Texas Public Opinion Research shift
The change came with fewer undecided voters. In the August survey, 7 percent had not made up their minds. In the September survey, that number fell to 3 percent. The movement pulled more voters into the main contest and left less room for the lead to grow.
Talarico still leads in several polls, but the latest decreases sit within the margin of error. That keeps the race from hardening into a clean edge for either side, even as the numbers point to a contest that is getting more defined.
Texas Southern University numbers
Texas Southern University drew a similar picture. Its September 15 to 19 survey of 1,800 likely Texas voters found Talarico at 47 percent, Paxton at 46 percent, and Ted Brown at 3 percent.
That was slightly tighter than the July 27 to July 30 survey of 1,200 likely Texas voters, which showed Talarico at 47 percent, Paxton at 45 percent, and Brown at 2 percent. Undecided voters also fell there, from 6 percent to 4 percent. An Emerson College survey from September 12 to 14 had Talarico up 47 percent to 46 percent, while an AARP survey of 895 likely voters from August 30 to September 1 gave him a 4-point lead. A YouGov/Univision poll of 1,000 registered voters from August 27 to September 4 put him ahead by 5 points.
debate push
Talarico has also pushed the race into a more public fight. During an appearance at the Texas Tribune Festival in Austin, he challenged Paxton to a televised debate on and said, "So let's go to Ken Paxton's safe space. Let's do Bret Baier on. I'll go into the lions den."
That challenge sits alongside another marker of his campaign: according to Federal Election Commission figures through June 30, the official Talarico senate campaign raised $31,853,507. The poll numbers now put more weight on whether his edge can hold as the November midterms get closer and undecided voters keep disappearing from the field.
