Labour has extended its lead over Reform UK from four points to five points in the latest BMG Polling for The i Paper as Labour Party Conference 2026 begins. Reform UK remained on 23 per cent for the third month running.
The same poll put Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain Party on 7 per cent after Lowe registered it in February. The party was up 2 points and was taking support from Reform UK, while Labour stayed ahead of its nearest rival.
Rupert Lowe and Restore Britain
Lowe, a former Reform MP, registered Restore Britain Party in February. Its 7 per cent showing makes the split in the right-of-centre vote visible in the numbers rather than just in the headlines.
Reform is still described as a potential kingmaker, but the latest figures show it holding at 23 per cent while another party on the same side of the political divide is growing. That leaves Nigel Farage's party with pressure on both sides: Labour is edging away, and Restore Britain is drawing away some of the same support.
YouGov and Reform MPs
YouGov's first large-scale election modelling since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister said Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman are among four Reform UK MPs who would lose their seats if a general election were held tomorrow. Danny Kruger and Sarah Pochin would also be unseated in that model.
The same polling picture says Labour would be the biggest party in a hung parliament. Burnham would need to work with the SNP or Plaid Cymru to reach a Parliamentary majority, which makes the gap between Labour and Reform more than a simple lead in a survey.
Reform's expansion plans
Reform is preparing a huge expansion of its operations around the country, with targets including London, the South East, the South West and the East of England. The polling suggests that expansion is coming while the party is still stuck on 23 per cent and facing a challenge from Lowe's new party.
The unanswered piece is how much more of Reform's support will move to Restore Britain Party in future polling. For now, Labour has turned a four-point edge into five, and Reform is left trying to hold its core vote while another rival starts to bite.
