Cooking Political Report analysis on Sept. 25 said Democrats were likely to gain enough House seats to take control of Congress, and the polling picture backed that up. NBC News’s congressional average put Democrats at 52% to Republicans’ 43%, with the midterms just under six weeks away.
Erin Covey’s seat range
Erin Covey said Democrats are likely to pick up between five and 15 seats. She said that would leave them with 220 to 230 seats in the House of Representatives, where 218 seats are needed for control in a chamber with 435 members.
That range gives Democrats a path that is narrow but real. Cook Political Report rates only 22 House races as toss ups, so the final margin can swing quickly if a few competitive districts move together.
NBC News polling shifts
The polling average on Sept. 25 was not an isolated number. On Sept. 23, an NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll showed Democrats with a 12-point lead, and on Sept. 24 an Emerson College poll showed a 53% to 42% split among the party voters favored. RealClear Polling showed Democrats with an almost nine-point lead.
Spencer Kimball said, “While the generic ballot test doesn’t capture nuances of individual races, it’s an important metric to gauge the magnitude of a potential Democratic wave.”
Republicans still hold power
Republicans still controlled both chambers even as the numbers moved toward Democrats, and that is the central friction in the race. Erin Covey wrote that, “Unlike in 2018, the last midterm cycle when Republicans were in power, the most competitive House races are almost entirely in districts that President Donald Trump win,” and added that, “But, in large part due to his handling of the economy, the president is now deeply underwater and is dragging down Republican House members and candidates across these districts.”
The Senate fight is tighter on the math alone. Democrats would have to pick up four new seats in the Senate while holding the ones they already have, which leaves less room for a polling edge to turn into full control. For readers watching the balance of power, the immediate takeaway is simple: Democrats were moving closer to the House majority on Sept. 25, but the final vote in the midterms will decide whether that lead becomes actual control of Congress.
