As of Monday morning, a tropical cyclone in the Central Atlantic had a 70% chance of development over the next 48 hours. It also had an 80% chance over the next seven days, while the system was drifting eastward away from the U.S.
Central Atlantic drift
The system was expected to slowly move across the Central Atlantic and farther from the U.S. Hanna is the next name in the rotation if the disturbance organizes into a named storm. For people in the U.S., that track keeps the system over open water rather than pushing it westward.
For readers tracking the broader basin, the forecast also fits a season that has stayed quieter than usual. El Niño is affecting the Atlantic basin, and the Pacific Ocean continues to create wind shear there through the rest of the season. If you want a separate look at another tropical system, see this Hawaii forecast for Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C.
Seven storms, no hurricanes
The Atlantic season has produced seven named storms so far, with three in the Gulf and four in the deep Atlantic. As of Monday morning, there had been no hurricanes this season, even though the season remains active until November 30.
That makes this stretch unusual: the basin has already generated several named systems, but none has reached hurricane strength. The source says that is the first time in nearly 100 years that no hurricanes have been seen this late in the season. For a comparison in another basin, readers can also review the report on Elida in the Pacific Ocean.
The next question is simple: whether this Central Atlantic system organizes enough to take Hanna’s name and whether it keeps drifting away from the U.S. rather than changing course.
