Andy Burnham says the Green Party should back his plan to end the state pension triple lock and use the savings to fund a national care service in England. The government says MPs will vote on the change during this parliament, while the triple lock itself stays in place until 2030.
The state pension currently rises by the highest of 2.5%, inflation or earnings growth. Burnham plans to change the earnings element so unusually large wage rises do not trigger the same size pension increase in future years.
Andy Burnham and England
Burnham said the savings would help pay for care that would be free at the point of use. He said the new system is expected to follow the Scottish model by covering care costs but not accommodation, and he added that the changes would still leave millions of pensioners better off.
He also promised to exempt lower-income pensioners from income tax during this parliament. That commitment sits alongside the planned legislation on pensions, so the changes would be debated together rather than as separate policies.
Resolution Foundation and Ruth Curtice
The government estimates the change would cut state pension spending by £15bn a year by the end of the 2030s and by £50bn a year by 2050. The Resolution Foundation said it is extremely difficult to estimate the savings, and its chief executive, Ruth Curtice, wrote on Friday that the adjusted triple lock saves most in a volatile world.
She said, “The adjusted triple lock saves most in a volatile world, and so saves nothing in the 90s or 00s, and £24bn in the 10s.” Curtice also wrote, “If real earnings growth permanently disappoints then even the protections in the new mechanism could prove expensive. A new, if not the main, reason to fight to avoid stagnant wages.”
Unite and voter support
Sharon Graham said earlier this week that getting rid of the pension triple lock to help fund social care changes would be “electoral suicide”. On Friday, YouGov published polling suggesting voters back Burnham’s plan by 48% to 28%.
That split leaves the politics of the change defined by two numbers: the savings on offer and the pension increase rule that would be altered. MPs will vote on the legislation during this parliament, and the details of how the earnings element is adjusted will determine how much future pension growth is capped when wages rise sharply.
The practical effect for pensioners is straightforward: future increases would no longer track every wage spike in the same way. For the government, the question is whether a rule designed to limit sudden jumps can raise the sums ministers want without eroding the pension rises people expect each year.
