Bryan Norcross said a Gulf Coast hurricane threat is building in the Bay of Campeche later this week as the National Hurricane Center puts high odds on tropical development. The setup could bring heavy rain to parts of the Gulf Coast by the weekend.
The FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist said a storm could form at the tail end of a massive cold front on Thursday or Friday. He tied the concern to a front draped over Central Florida and extending across the Gulf, with heavy rain already aimed at Florida through the workweek.
Bay of Campeche odds
The National Hurricane Center’s high-odds outlook is the clearest sign that forecasters see a real development window, but the timing remains tight. A system would have to organize near the end of the front before the remnants lift north toward the end of the workweek.
The FOX Forecast Center said the disturbance could struggle to develop or stay closer to the coast of Mexico. Even if it strengthens into a named tropical system, the forecast center said it is unlikely to become a powerful hurricane.
Florida and Louisiana coasts
For readers along the Florida and Louisiana coasts, the most immediate issue is rain, not landfall details. The front’s remnants could bring another round of heavy rain by the weekend, and that threat follows days of heavy rain in Florida tied to the same front.
The uncertainty is still centered on whether a system forms at all, where it forms, and how it tracks. Computer forecast and AI models do not agree, even with high odds in place.
Quiet Atlantic season
The development comes against an Atlantic hurricane season that has gone more than 330 days since the last hurricane formed. September ended without a hurricane in the Atlantic for the first time in 32 years, only the eighth time since the 1950s and just the second since 1966.
Gulf water temperatures are at their warmest levels on record dating back to 1982, which gives the Bay of Campeche system a more favorable base if it can organize. For now, the next thing to watch is whether the disturbance can take shape on Thursday or Friday and whether it stays near Mexico or pushes into the broader Gulf flow.
