Jon Metler backed the Brooklyn Nets on the moneyline against the Charlotte Hornets on Tuesday, Oct. 6, arguing that the market had overreacted to a preseason matchup where lineup news mattered more than reputation.
It is still only preseason, which is exactly why this kind of wager can be tricky. Rotations, rest spots and late injury updates can change the shape of a game very quickly, and Metler said the Hornets were priced too aggressively given the players they were missing.
The betting analyst said he was surprised to see the Charlotte Hornets trading as such a big favourite with Kon Knueppel out due to injury and Coby White also sidelined. In his view, that created value on the other side, even if the numbers still made Brooklyn the underdog on the board.
Why Metler liked the Nets
Metler’s case was simple: if a preseason line is being driven by uncertainty, then the more flexible side can become the better price. He put Brooklyn at around 44% to win the matchup, while the market had them closer to 40%.
That gap was enough for him to call the Nets the moneyline play. In a game like this, the edge is not about certainty. It is about whether the price is fair, and Metler did not think Charlotte warranted the level of confidence the market was showing.
Charlotte’s preseason setup adds more uncertainty
The Hornets are also still integrating new pieces such as Grayson Allen and Naz Reid, which only adds another layer of unknowns at this stage of the schedule. In preseason, that matters. Coaches are still learning combinations, and teams are often more focused on evaluation than results.
That does not automatically make the favourite wrong, but it does make a heavy number harder to trust when key players are out. Metler’s view was that the Nets were being underestimated relative to the actual game conditions, especially with the Hornets adjusting to new personnel and missing important names.
So while the result will matter far less than it would in the regular season, the betting logic is clear. For Metler, the line was strong enough to back Brooklyn, and the Hornets’ injury situation was the main reason why.
