Sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific Ocean has climbed to record levels as El Niño strengthens. NOAA now gives the pattern a 90% chance of becoming very strong this fall and winter.
The region where El Niño is usually measured is 6.1 degrees Fahrenheit higher than normal. NOAA also puts the chance of a historic event larger than any El Niño since 1950 at 75%.
Catherine Russell on 347 million children
Catherine Russell said El Niño was expected to increase water shortages, malnutrition and disease outbreaks. She said, "With over 347 million children living in areas expected to experience drier or wetter conditions because of El Niño, we must act now to protect communities and children".
UNICEF said its analysis suggests hundreds of millions of children could face dangerous conditions because of the climate pattern. The estimate points to children in areas expected to get drier or wetter weather, a shift that can affect farming, water access and disease spread at the same time.
Abby Frazier on the pattern
Abby Frazier, a climatologist and professor of geography at Clark University, said, "It feels like super El Niño is appropriate." NOAA’s index data suggests this season’s event is already the second-biggest anomaly on record for July through September, even without counting global warming.
El Niño happens when winds near the equator slacken and the upwelling of cold water to the surface of the eastern Pacific Ocean stalls. That can push winter jet stream flow southward, leaving some areas drier and others exposed to heavier rain and flooding.
Scientists expect El Niño to batter the U.S. West Coast and cause unusual beach erosion, while the Pacific Northwest can lose snowpack and water supply. It is also tied to intense rainfall and storms in the Southeast and warm conditions in the Pacific Northwest, with rice, coffee and chocolate among the crops that can be affected as growing conditions shift.
The next benchmark is NOAA’s fall and winter outlook, which will show whether the warming Pacific keeps building toward the stronger end of the forecast. The practical issue for families, growers and aid groups is not whether the pattern is active now; it is how far the temperature spike goes before it peaks.
