The Edmonton Oilers were road favorites for Wednesday’s 10 p.m. ET meeting with the Anaheim Ducks at Honda Center, and the case for Edmonton was built on the kind of numbers that usually matter most in a betting preview: five-on-five control, stronger underlying play and a warning that Anaheim’s early edge may not last.
That does not make this a simple spot. The Ducks have opened with enough positive surface results to draw attention, but their numbers were flagged as the sort that can cool quickly if the shooting and save rate drift back toward normal. Edmonton, by contrast, arrived with the more convincing profile in the areas that tend to travel well on the road.
Why Edmonton held the edge
The Oilers’ even-strength profile stood out. Edmonton had posted a 55.7 Corsi For percentage and a 55.1 expected goals percentage, a combination that suggests they were not just controlling volume but also generating the better chances. In a betting market, that kind of five-on-five edge is often more reliable than a short burst of scoring form.
That matters even more when the matchup includes elite finishing talent. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have long been the driving force behind Edmonton’s attack, and the numbers from the beginning of the 2024-25 campaign only reinforced that point. With both on the ice, the Oilers were at 7.76 goals and 6.62 expected goals per 60 minutes, a level of production that explains why Edmonton remain so difficult to price against, even away from home.
Anaheim’s early numbers could be due for a correction
The concern for Anaheim was less about what they had already done and more about whether it was sustainable. The Ducks were sitting 29th in Corsi For percentage and 23rd in expected goals percentage, while their 105.6 PDO hinted at results running a little hot. That is the sort of profile bettors often treat carefully, especially when the opponent is the stronger possession team.
Lukas Dostal’s.918 save percentage has helped Anaheim start well, but there is also a longer view to consider. Over the past three seasons, he had posted a.897 save percentage, which is a reminder that one strong stretch does not always define the wider picture. If the Ducks are to keep outperforming expectations, they may need to keep bailing themselves out at a level that is hard to maintain.
Matchup factors beyond the headline names
Edmonton also had positive signs elsewhere in the lineup. Vasily Podkolzin scored in three straight games to begin the year, which gave the Oilers another layer of early-season threat beyond the usual McDavid and Draisaitl conversation. That sort of secondary production matters in games like this, where the favourite is expected to spend long stretches in control.
There was at least one encouraging note for Edmonton in goal as well. Devon Levi stopped 19 of 20 shots with 0.68 goals saved above expected in his latest start, a reminder that the Oilers could also lean on timely goaltending if the game tightened up. For a road favourite, that combination is usually enough to justify the market leaning their way.
The numbers do not guarantee an Edmonton win, but they do explain why the Oilers were viewed as the more trustworthy side ahead of the puck drop. If Anaheim’s early shooting and save-rate form settles down, the Ducks may find this level of opposition is a very different challenge. For Edmonton, this looked like the kind of road spot where a strong five-on-five team is expected to impose itself.
