James Talarico now leads Ken Paxton 51% to 45% in a new Ken Paxton James Talarico Texas poll, a six-point swing from their June tie. and Siena Research Institute survey lands two weeks before early voting begins and adds fresh pressure to a race already drawing heavy money.
June Tie To September Gap
The same pollster had the two tied at 47% each in June. This latest survey, taken from Sept. 21 to Sept. 30 among 615 Texas voters, shows Talarico with the edge in the Texas Senate race and sits outside the survey’s 4.5% margin of error, which makes the shift hard to ignore even before ballots start moving.
That six-point move is the sharpest change in the race’s recent polling and it comes while the campaign has already become one of the most expensive non-presidential contests on record. AdImpact says advertising spending has reached $442 million, with Republicans outspending Democrats $326 million to $116 million.
Texas Money Keeps Rising
The spending level matters because it shows how much is still being pushed into the race before early voting begins. A contest with that kind of money usually keeps changing fast, and the latest numbers suggest the air war has not settled the race into one lane.
Texas voters in the same survey were split on the state’s direction, with 46% saying Texas was heading in the wrong direction, 41% saying it was on the right track, and 12% saying they did not know or did not answer. Those numbers point to an electorate still unsettled, which fits a Senate race that is moving rather than freezing.
September Polling In Texas
The broader September picture showed more movement beyond the Senate contest. Gina Hinojosa led Greg Abbott 49% to 46% in the gubernatorial poll, after trailing 45% to 51% in June, while voters were more likely to support the Democratic candidate in their U.S. House district by 47% to 45%.
Disapproval of how Donald Trump is handling the job of president also rose to 57% in September from 52% in June. The polling does not explain what drove Talarico’s rise, but it does show that the latest snapshot is not matching the dead-heat result from earlier in the year, and the race enters the final stretch with one candidate holding a six-point lead before early voting starts.
