Kathy Hochul leads Bruce Blakeman by 12 points in a new New York governor debate poll from Emerson College Polling and PIX11 News. The survey found Hochul at 52% and Blakeman at 40% among 900 likely voters, with 8% undecided.
Spencer Kimball on New York Democrats
Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, said Hochul’s advantage came from New York Democrats, who backed her 84% to 8%. He said independents broke the other way, favoring Blakeman 55% to 34%.
The poll was conducted October 3-5, 2026, with a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.3 percent. Emerson College Polling said the sample was weighted by gender, education, party registration and region, using voter file data and additional panel interviews.
Hochul's 40% approval
The survey also measured job ratings that help explain the race’s shape. Hochul had a 40% approval rating and a 46% disapproval rating, while 15% were neutral. President Trump drew 35% approval and 57% disapproval, and Chuck Schumer had 30% approval and 50% disapproval.
Among the issues named by voters, the economy led at 34%, followed by housing affordability at 17%, threats to democracy at 13%, crime at 12% and immigration at 10%. On the economic question, 28% named the cost of everyday goods as their biggest concern, while 12% each pointed to housing and taxes.
Midterm Elections excitement
The survey also found 59% of New York voters very excited to vote in the Midterm Elections and 27% somewhat excited. Among those very excited, Hochul led 58% to 35%; among those somewhat excited, she led 49% to 46%.
That split gives Hochul the overall lead, but it also leaves Blakeman with a path that runs through independents and less engaged voters. The poll does not set the outcome; it shows where each side has to work before Election Day.
