Why SpaceX’s launch business is worth just $8 per share under Morgan Stanley’s math, while Starlink and AI carry most of the value, is the split Wall Street is watching. Adam Jonas put a $300 price target on SpaceX and tied the bulk of it to businesses outside the rocket launches that made the company famous.
Jonas’ $300 Framework
His breakdown puts $8 per share on the external launch business, $118 per share on the Starlink-powered connectivity business, and $165 per share on the enterprise AI business. That math leaves launch operations as a small piece of the valuation picture even though they remain central to the company’s operations.
TipRanks tracks 35 analysts covering SpaceX, and their 12-month targets run from $75 to $450. The average estimate is $217, nearly 50% above the stock’s price as of the article, which shows how widely the market is still debating what drives the company’s worth. Why Seattle look heavy favorites and other sharp pricing calls across sports and markets follow the same logic: the headline number only makes sense when the underlying pieces are broken out.
SpaceX Revenue Mix
SpaceX’s revenue reached $7.81 billion in the second quarter, but the Space segment contributed just $962 million. External launch services generated $648 million in that segment, roughly 8% of total revenue, while the segment still posted a $542 million operating loss.
The launch business also sat inside a heavier spending cycle. SpaceX spent approximately $1.08 billion on research and development in the Space segment, and much of that work was associated with Starship. Of the 38 launches completed during the second quarter, 28 were internal missions, including Starlink deployments and development tests.
Starlink and AI Value
The real earnings engine sits elsewhere. SpaceX’s Connectivity segment generated $4.29 billion in second-quarter revenue and $1.66 billion in operating income, for an operating margin of nearly 39%. Starlink’s subscribers doubled year over year to 12 million at the end of the second quarter, even as average monthly revenue per subscriber fell from $85 to $66.
Enterprise and government revenues more than doubled year over year, which helps explain why Wall Street is paying up for the connectivity business and for AI rather than for launch fees alone. SpaceX also agreed to acquire Grain Management’s 800-megahertz spectrum portfolio for a reported $8 billion, another move aimed at the economics around connectivity rather than the rocket count itself. For readers tracking other valuation splits, LAFC vs New York City at Citi Field and Man City appeal timeline show how the market often prices the structure behind the headline, not just the headline.
The contradiction is plain: SpaceX’s rockets are the public face of the company, yet the numbers show they account for only a small share of revenue and an even smaller share of Morgan Stanley’s valuation. The launch business still matters because it supports cheaper satellite deployment and replacement, but the future value case now leans on Starlink, enterprise AI, and whatever Starship can do to shift those costs lower.
